Canada Day Poll

COMPAS polled 1,200 Canadians to gauge national attitudes and awareness. Major findings include:

• Canadians have mixed feelings of optimism concerning Canada’s economic prospects, culture, and sovereignty in the new millennium.
• Half the Canadian public is unable to identify 1867 as the date of Confederation
• The vast majority of Canadians believe CBC funding levels should be maintained or increased

Canadians will be celebrating Canada's 129th birthday this Monday in a mixed frame-of-mind when thinking about their and the country's longer-term future. Just over one-third (39%) believe that "looking to the year 2000 and beyond," Canada's economic prospects will be better than they are today, while 31% believe things will remain essentially the same, and 28% that economic prospects will be worse. Similarly, 34% believe that the state of Canada's culture/identity will be better, 42% the same, and 22% worse than today. And, in their expectations about our ability to control our own domestic affairs against international pressures, 28% of Canadians believe that things will be better, 42% the same, and 29% worse.

Canadians say that traveling, books, television, and newspapers are all important sources of information for them in learning about the country. But, with half of the public (53%) not able to identify 1867 as the year Canada became a country, historical understanding is clearly lacking among many.

On the CBC front, despite what some pundits and commentators suggest, Canadians continue to hold decidedly positive evaluations of the CBC's performance in meeting its mandate. Large numbers of Canadians believe that the CBC's funding should be preserved at current levels (61%), or in fact increased (20%). The fact that only 16% of Canadians would recommend to their MP that the CBC's funding be decreased further suggests that the public is clearly not on-side with further government actions in this regard.

These are a few highlights of the findings from a recent national opinion survey conducted by COMPAS Inc. for The Friends of Canadian Broadcasting. The poll, conducted between June 10-16 among a representative sample of 1,200 Canadians, was designed to provide insight into the mindset of Canadians as they come to celebrate the country's birthday this July 1. And, what the results have to say is very revealing.

Findings

Expectations for the Future

Canadians are mildly optimistic about the country's longer-term future overall, although they are divided in their expectations about whether specific things will improve in the medium - and longer-term. Respondents were asked, "Generally speaking, looking to the next century, in the year 2000 and beyond, would you say that you are very optimistic ... not at all optimistic about Canada's future overall?" In response, 72% said that they are optimistic, with most of these (54%) fitting into the "somewhat optimistic" category. Just over one-quarter of respondents said they are "not very" (21%) or "not at all" (6%) optimistic. While the overall measure of optimism is at least somewhat encouraging, it hides some clear divisions in opinion among Canadians in their expectations about improvement in specific aspects of their quality of life and the country's future.

Respondents were asked, " ... looking to the next century, in the year 2000 and beyond, do you feel that Canada will be much better ... much worse in terms of, 1). its economic prospects, 2). its culture and identity, 3). the level of tolerance/acceptance that Canadians show for different types of people, 4). our ability to control our own domestic affairs against pressures from other countries, specifically the United States?" As indicated in the accompanying chart, a sizable number of Canadians expect each item to improve, although equally significant numbers feel that things will remain the same as they are today or in fact become worse. Indeed, one interpretation of these data is disturbing -- a notable majority of Canadians look to their and the country's longer-term future with no expectation for improvement or a fear that things will become worse.

Results presented in the accompanying chart reveal that Canadians' expectations for the future differ across regions of the country. Taking two of the items as examples, the bottom set of bars show that Albertans and Ontarians are clearly the most optimistic about the country's longer-term economic prospects. The top set of bars reveal that opinions about the country's future culture/identity are mixed in all regions.

Learning About CanadaWith a full 87% of respondents identifying July 1 as the day that Canada celebrates its birthday, Canadians are clearly well aware of the reason for the July 1 holiday. This awareness is high in all regions -- 81% in Quebec, 85% in Atlantic Canada, 87% BC, 88% Alberta, 89% Ontario, and 91% Prairies.

Canadians' historical knowledge about the country's birth is, however, clearly lacking. Fewer than half of respondents (47%) identified 1867 as the year in which Canada became a country. Granted, the national average is drawn down somewhat by Quebec (35%) where questions might emerge about whether some Quebec respondents believe that 1867 is, in fact, the birthdate of the country. Nevertheless, even in Atlantic Canada (44%), Ontario (52%), the Prairies (51%), Alberta (49%), and BC (49%), at best, only half of respondents identified 1867.

Further probing reveals that Canadians believe that a variety of sources of information are important in learning about their country. Respondents were asked, "There are lots of different ways that Canadians learn about their country. For you personally, do you think that ... is a very important, important, somewhat important, not very important or not at all important source of learning about Canada?" The items tested included television, radio, newspapers, magazines, traveling around the country, and books.

The accompanying chart reveals that traveling and books top the list of important information sources. Newspapers and television are also assigned high levels of importance, with radio and magazines important, but ranking third.

The CBCKeeping with the tracking nature of the polling that The Friends of Canadian Broadcasting commissions through COMPAS, this poll probed attitudes toward the CBC. And, despite what some pundits and commentators suggest, the poll results show that Canadians are, on the whole, favourable in their opinions of the CBC.

Respondents were asked, "As you know, as the national broadcaster, the mandate of the CBC is to provide radio and television services incorporating a wide range of programming that informs enlightens and entertains. Overall, how would you rate the performance of the CBC in fulfilling this mandate to-date ... excellent ... very poor?" The accompanying chart reveals that over three-quarters of Canadians rate the CBC good or better on this assessment, with decidedly positive evaluations evident in each region of the country.

Given this generally positive opinion environment, it is not surprising to find that most Canadians have pro-CBC opinions when it comes to the corporation's funding.

First, respondents were asked, "Assume for a moment that your federal member of Parliament asked for your advice on an upcoming vote in the House of Commons on what to do about CBC funding. Which one of the following three options would you advise him/her to vote for ... decrease funding for the CBC from current levels, preserve funding for the CBC at current levels, increase funding for the CBC from current levels." As the accompanying chart shows, the vast majority of Canadians would recommend that CBC's funding be, at the very least, preserved at current levels.

Second, respondents were asked, "As you may recall, during the last federal election campaign the Liberals promised in their Red Book that they would provide stable long-term funding for the CBC. Since that time, the federal Liberal government has in fact cut more funds, about $400 million, from the CBC's budget. Given what they promised in the campaign, do you think that the federal Liberal government was justified in making these cuts."

The accompanying chart shows that a sizable majority nationally, and in each region, believe that the government was not justified given their 1993 promises. Interestingly, this has increased significantly from 1995 where 50% of Canadians felt that the government was not justified in making the cuts. This is perhaps due to the public's increased focus on government promises through the Copp's affair.

The Federal Political LandscapeWith a federal election likely in the not too distant future, the poll probed Canadians political attitudes as a benchmark for monitoring change as the election draws nearer.

The federal Liberals can celebrate Canada's 129th birthday knowing that they are entrenched atop the party preferences of Canadian voters. A strong 49% of decided voters nationally would cast their ballots for the federal Liberals if an election were being held today, while Reform (15%), the Progressive Conservatives (14%), the NDP (12%), and the Bloc (10%) would pull relatively equal shares of support.

While the federal Liberals do well in each region of the country, they are faced with a more competitive situation in some regions than in others. The accompanying table shows, for example, that the BQ lead the Liberals by two points in decided vote in Quebec. While this is clearly a much better competitive position for the Liberals in Quebec than in the recent past, even without Bouchard the BQ appear to have held a solid core of their support. Furthermore, in the West, Reform continues to register a sizable core of voters, while the Liberals dominate Ontario and Atlantic Canada.

While the current federal vote results are of interest, the results from other political questions which were asked are particularly revealing.

For example, there is little question that Canadians are increasingly negative in the way they decide and cast their ballots, although this varies by partisan group.

Specifically, respondents were asked why they would vote/lean toward the party they identified as their current preference. The question was, "You indicated that you would vote/lean XXX if a federal election were being held today. Which one of the following best describes why you would make this choice ... I would vote for the XXX because I like what they are saying and doing; I would vote for the XXX because I don't like the alternatives?" The accompanying chart shows that current Reform and Bloc voters are clearly voting for their respective parties, leaders and platforms. On the other hand, half of Liberal, Progressive Conservative and NDP supporters are supporting their respective parties mainly as a vote against the alternatives rather than because they find any particular "pull" appeal toward the parties.

What makes these results all the more revealing is comparing them with the 1993 federal election results. The same "reason for voting" question was asked of respondents, only this time it asked why they voted the way they did in 1993. The accompanying chart shows, for example, that Liberal support appears to be increasingly a parked vote against the alternatives. Among those who say they voted Liberal in 1993, 54% said they did this because they liked what the Liberals were saying and doing; 45% said they did so because they did not like the alternatives. As indicated earlier, these numbers are essentially reversed from what current Liberal partisans say about their current reasons for voting Liberal.

Therefore, while the Liberals can celebrate this Canada Day with some degree of comfort, the poll results suggest that they would be well-advised not to sit on their laurels. This is reflected in several findings.

For example, while not peculiar to the Liberals, the increasing "anti-voting" behaviour of Canadians is obviously an important finding in understanding the mindset of Canadians. Therefore, it should be an area of concern to all of the political parties as they jockey toward the starting-gate for the next election, but perhaps mostly the Liberals given the size of the pool of their current vote base.

Furthermore, analysis of other of the poll's results sheds additional cautionary lights for the Liberals.

For example, a majority of current Liberal supporters (56%) do not foresee that the country's economy will be any better than it is today in the year 2000 and beyond, including 20% who believe it will be worse. Similarly, 60% of current Liberals do not foresee any improvement in the country's culture/identity, including 18% who believe this will be worse. And, the importance of dealing with future perceptions/expectations is reflected in findings which show that the 12% of voters who have defected from the Liberals since the 1993 election are in fact particularly pessimistic about the future (i.e., 34% believe economic prospects will be worse, 31% that culture/identity will be worse).

Indeed, even on issues such as the CBC, there are some clear cautionary flags for the federal Liberals.

For example, the 1993 and current vote results can be combined to create a profile of Canadian voters. The results suggest that 30% of Canadian voters can be classified as Core Liberals (voted Liberal in 1993 and would currently), 12% as Liberal Defectors (voted Liberal in 1993 but would not today), 8% New Liberals (did not vote Liberal in 1993 but would today), and 50% Non-Liberals (did not vote Liberal in 1993 and would not today).

Examining responses to the CBC questions across these segments reveals, for example, that the vast majority of all segments would recommend to their MP that he/she vote to at least preserve, if not increase, the CBC's funding -- Core Liberals 83%, Liberal Defectors 80%, New Liberals 89%, and Non-Liberals 80%. Furthermore, it is Liberal defectors (65%) who lead opinion that the Liberals were not justified in cutting CBC funding after their Red Book promises; although this opinion is also held by a majority of Core Liberals (57%), New Liberals (56%), and Non-Liberals (66%).

In summary, the political results show that with the increasing anti-voting tendencies of Canadians, and the varied opinions of specific segments of Liberal partisans upon which the government will rely to be re-elected, the federal political environment is as complex and challenging today than in any time in the past. The results suggest that while riding high in the polls as the country celebrates its 129th birthday, the incumbent Liberal government will be faced with serious and interesting challenges as they move toward an election call.

MethodologyThe survey was commissioned by The Friends of Canadian Broadcasting. It was conducted by telephone between June 10 - 16, 1996. A total of 1,200 interviews were completed among a proportionately representative, random sample of Canadians, 18 years of age and older. National results from a sample of this size can be considered accurate to within +/-2.9 percentage points or better, 95% of the time.

COMPAS Inc. is an independent, non-partisan, Canadian-based market/publlic opinion survey research firm. Questions about this survey can be directed to the principal COMPAS researcher, Mr. Chris Martyn, Senior Partner (416) 598-0310.

COMPAS Inc.

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